French Elections: Significant Blow for Macron as Far-Right Triumphs in First Round, Run-Off Negotiations Commence
French voters face a pivotal decision on July 7 in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections, which could result in the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation, or potentially lead to a situation with no clear majority.
HIGHLIGHTS
1. France conducts the first round of Parliamentary Elections.
2. Anti-immigrant, eurosceptic National Rally (RN) takes the lead.
3. Leftist bloc follows in second place, while Macron’s centrists are in third.
Paris: Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party achieved historic gains in the first round of France’s parliamentary election on Sunday, according to exit polls. The RN was seen winning approximately 34% of the vote, posing a significant challenge to President Emmanuel Macron, who had called for the snap election after his party’s recent defeat by the RN in the European Parliament elections.
Election Results in France
The RN’s share of the vote surpassed that of leftist and centrist rivals, including Macron’s Together alliance, which was projected to receive between 20.5% and 23% of the vote. The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing coalition, was expected to garner around 29% of the vote. These exit polls, consistent with pre-election surveys, were met with enthusiasm by Le Pen’s supporters.
However, it remains unclear whether the RN can form a government to “cohabit” with the pro-EU Macron after the run-off on July 7. Despite the RN’s controversial history and efforts to clean up its image, voter dissatisfaction with Macron and concerns over issues like the high cost of living and immigration have brought the party closer to power.
At Le Pen’s Henin-Beaumont constituency in northern France, supporters celebrated with French flags and the Marseillaise. “The French have shown their desire to turn the page on a contemptuous and corrosive power,” Le Pen declared to her cheering supporters. The RN’s success next week will depend on political negotiations among its rivals. Historically, center-right and center-left parties have collaborated to prevent the RN from gaining power, but this “republican front” is now less certain.
If no candidate secures 50% in the first round, the top two contenders, along with any who receive 12.5% of registered voters, advance to the second round. In these run-offs, the candidate with the most votes wins the constituency. Sunday’s high turnout suggests a record number of three-way run-offs, which generally benefit the RN more than two-way contests. Political maneuvering began immediately on Sunday night.
Macron urged voters to support candidates who are “clearly Republican and democratic,” excluding those from the RN and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. Leaders from the center-left and far-left called on their third-placed candidates to withdraw. “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single vote for the National Rally,” stated France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Melenchon. Meanwhile, the center-right Republican party, some of whose lawmakers joined the RN, provided no guidance.
Who Will Be France’s Next Prime Minister?
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old president of the RN party, expressed readiness to become prime minister if his party wins a majority. He dismissed the idea of forming a minority government and neither Macron nor the NFP leftist group plans to ally with him.
“I will be a ‘cohabitation’ Prime Minister, respecting the constitution and the office of President of the Republic, but unwavering in our policy implementation,” he stated. Meanwhile, the mood was somber at the Republique square in Paris, where anti-RN protesters from the leftist alliance gathered. Najiya Khaldi, a 33-year-old teacher, expressed “disgust, sadness, and fear” at the RN’s strong results.
Market reactions were muted, with the euro gaining around 0.23% in early Asia-Pacific trading. Fiona Cincotta, a senior markets analyst at London’s City Index, noted relief at the lack of surprises in the results. “Le Pen had a slightly smaller margin than some polls predicted, possibly boosting the euro a bit,” she said. “Attention now shifts to July 7 to see if the second round yields an absolute majority. We’re still in a state of limbo.”
Complex Calculations in French Elections
The RN was anticipated to win the most seats in the National Assembly, but only one pollster, Elabe, projected an absolute majority of 289 seats. Experts caution that seat projections based on first-round votes can be highly inaccurate, particularly in this election. No official nationwide results were available on Sunday evening, but they were expected within hours. Historically, exit polls in France have been quite accurate.
Voter turnout was high compared to previous parliamentary elections, reflecting the political fervor stirred by Macron’s bold and risky decision to call a parliamentary vote. As of 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared to 39.42% two years ago—the highest comparable turnout since the 1986 legislative vote, according to Ipsos France’s research director Mathieu Gallard. The official turnout figure update was pending.
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